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Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T23:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T23:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31706/-1
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature for this CME. Starting around 2024-06-29T14:30Z, rotation in magnetic field components is seen in ACE and DSCOVR data. Further analysis of this event may be of interest to the research community. Faint CME visible in the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the S/SE in STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption centered around S10W05, between ARs 3719 and 3720. Liftoff and brightening starting around 2024-06-25T22:18Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-29T23:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2024 Jun 27 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40627
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Jun 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
....
Coronal mass ejections: A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 23:52 UTC on June 25th. The CME is directed primarily to the south from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a small filament eruption that took place near the disk center around 22:18 UTC on June 25th. It is estimated to be Earth-directed and is expected to arrive at Earth late on June 29 - early on June 30th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Lead Time: 61.63 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-27T10:07Z

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